NCAER in the News

Opinion: Poonam Gupta and S Priyadarshini. The real growth rate of the Indian economy in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 (Q1, FY24), according to the latest data released by the Central Statistical Office (CSO), stood at 7.8 per cent. Market economists embraced this data as reflective of their own projections, and in line with their...   Read More


  • Labor Market Responses of Firms to the SARS-CoV-2 Induced Economic Slowdown

    Opinion: Samarth Gupta Bornali Bhandari Ajaya Sahu and K S Urs A Retrospective on H1: 2020-21. In the September Quarterly Review of the Economy NCAER had forecasted that GDP would contract in H1: 2020-21 although the rate of contraction would moderate in Q2: 2020-21 compared to Q1: 2020-21.   In such times cost-cutting is a common response...   Read More

  • Why polls today are more about psychology and political economy than statistics

    Media News: Surjit S Bhalla & Abhinav Motheram  The more academic American Association for Public Opinion Research’s (AAPOR) postmortem report on the 2016 election polls recognised that state polls ‘clearly underestimated Trump’s support in the Upper Midwest’. India 2014. Britain 2016. The US 2016. India 2019. And now the US 2020. What do the above five...   Read More

  • India must export organic and value added horticulture products

    Media News: Tarujyoti Buragohain Dr. Tarujyoti Buragohain NCAER surmises that high prices of horticulture products due to lack of necessary infrastructure and quality are the major constraint for India in the export market. Moreover diversifying into organic and value added horticulture products may help improve export prospects. IBT: How have India’s horticulture exports progressed in the...   Read More

  • Lead Bank Scheme: Does organisational design matter?

    Opinion: Samarth Gupta The Lead Bank Scheme of the RBI involves a ‘lead bank’ in each district of India that coordinates financial services in the district and a ‘convenor bank’ in each state that monitors these activities of the lead banks in the state. Analysing quarterly district-level data on credit disbursement for 2004-2019 this article finds...   Read More

  • Market reforms: The unfinished agenda

    Opinion: K P Krishnan It's time to address the root cause of the 1992 stock market scandal - a conflict of interest in RBI's many roles The release of a recent Sony LIV series on the Harshad Mehta financial markets scandals that rocked India in the early 1990s has triggered chintanam on an event that...   Read More

  • The Need For Judicial Reforms

    Opinion: Sanjib Pohit Informational asymmetry among consumers producers gives each economic agent an incentive to cheat. The latest NCAER’s (National Council of Applied Economic Research) forecast has indicated that YoY growth will remain negative through Q2 Q3 and Q4 at -12.7% -8.6% and -6.2% respectively. For the year as a whole 2020-21 GDP will decline by...   Read More

  • Economic policy needs to address those who have seen the greatest distress during lockdown

    Opinion: Sonalde Desai Neerad Deshmukh & Santanu Pramanik  The urban poor is still finding it difficult to return to work. Targeting social safety nets towards them is necessary as the economy struggles to recover. While COVID-19 continues its assault on human lives the Indian economy after the devastation in the wake of the lockdown is showing...   Read More

  • Navigating the narrow passage between recovery and inflation

    Opinion: Sudipto Mundle The new MPC has done well but it would take game-changing reforms for our economy to regain its pre-covid trend growth The new monetary policy committee (MPC) which submitted its first report last Friday has started well. Faced with an unprecedented crisis a steep gross domestic product (GDP) contraction of 24% in the...   Read More

  • Don’t ignore the plight of divyangs

    In the Covid era physical distancing and isolation may be impossible to follow for those who rely on the support of others to eat dress and bathe Opinion: Soumi Roy Chowdhury & Sanjib Pohit  Disability is an issue which has been the least researched. According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study disability ranges...   Read More

  • Rich farmers dominate farm protests in India. It’s happening since Charan Singh days

    The agriculture sector like large and medium industries of the Indian economy also needs a well-organised industry representation. Opinion: Indranil De and Sanjib Pohit India has a long history of farm movements. Surplus generated out of the Green Revolution made farmers a politically significant group. Chaudhary Charan Singh was one of the first to identify...   Read More