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The US-China Trade War Impact on India and its Policy Choices

The five-year period 2012-13 to 2016-17 witnessed a decline in Indian merchandise exports at an average rate of 4.5 percent per annum. The Ministry of Commerce and Industry initiated a discussion in August 2018 on designing a strategy for doubling India’s exports by 2025. This growth from US$ 504...

Rajesh Chadha, Sanjib Pohit, Devender Pratap
Nov 2019
Subsidies, Merit Goods and the Fiscal Space for Reviving Growth: An Aspect of Public Expenditure in India

Budget subsidies have been defined as the unrecovered cost of economic and social services. The incidence of these implicit and explicit budget subsidies provided by the central and state governments has declined from about 12.9 % of GDP in 1987-88 to 10.3 % at present. The bulk of these subsidies...

Sudipto Mundle, Satadru Sikdar
Nov 2019
 
Enrolment of girl children in secondary schools in Rajasthan- A district level analysis

In comparison to the rest of India, Rajasthan continues to suffer from disturbingly low female literacy rate, poor enrolment and retention rates of girls in schools mostly the in rural areas, but also in the small urban towns. This research informs the design of a cash transfer policy intended to...

Anushree Sinha, Astha Sen, Rajesh Kumar Jaiswal
May 2019
Lead-Lag Relationship between Credit and Output Cycles: Case of India and US

To understand the interactions between real and financial aspects of an economy, this paper investigates cyclical relationship between credit and growth cycles in India and US over the period 1994-2013 in the frequency domain. Originality of our contribution is in the use of Multitaper method of...

Anusha Avyukt
Jul 2018
 
A New Approach to Nowcasting Indian Gross Value Added

In India, quarterly growth of Gross Value Added (GVA) is published with a large lag and nowcasts are exacerbated by data challenges typically faced by emerging market economies, such as big data revisions, mixed frequencies data publication, small sample size, non-synchronous nature of data...

Soumya Bhadury, Robert C. M. Beyer, Sanjib Pohit
Jun 2018
Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Public and Private Investment in India

This paper contributes to the debate on the relationship between public and private investment in India along the following dimensions. First, acknowledging major structural changes that the Indian economy has undergone in the past three decades, we study whether public investment in recent years...

Girish Bahal, Mehdi Raissi, Volodymyr Tulin
May 2018
 
Money's Causal Role in Exchange Rate: Do Divisia Monetary Aggregates Explain More?

We investigate the predictive power of Divisia monetary aggregates in explaining exchange rate variations for India, Israel, Poland, UK and the US, in the years leading up to and following the 2007-08 recessions. One valid concern for the chosen sample period is that the interest rate has been stuck...

Taniya Ghosh, Soumya Bhadury
Feb 2018
Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy

Lucas (1990) argues that the neoclassical adjustment process fails to explain the relative paucity of FDI inflows from rich to poor countries. In this paper we consider a natural experiment: using China as the treated country and India as the control, we show that the dynamics of the relative FDI...

John Donaldson, Christos Koulovatianos, Jian Li, Rajnish Mehra
Jan 2018
 
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