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Lead-Lag Relationship between Credit and Output Cycles: Case of India and US

To understand the interactions between real and financial aspects of an economy, this paper investigates cyclical relationship between credit and growth cycles in India and US over the period 1994-2013 in the frequency domain. Originality of our contribution is in the use of Multitaper method of...

Anusha Avyukt
Jul 2018
A New Approach to Nowcasting Indian Gross Value Added

In India, quarterly growth of Gross Value Added (GVA) is published with a large lag and nowcasts are exacerbated by data challenges typically faced by emerging market economies, such as big data revisions, mixed frequencies data publication, small sample size, non-synchronous nature of data...

Soumya Bhadury, Robert C. M. Beyer, Sanjib Pohit
Jun 2018
 
Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Public and Private Investment in India

This paper contributes to the debate on the relationship between public and private investment in India along the following dimensions. First, acknowledging major structural changes that the Indian economy has undergone in the past three decades, we study whether public investment in recent years...

Girish Bahal, Mehdi Raissi, Volodymyr Tulin
May 2018
Money's Causal Role in Exchange Rate: Do Divisia Monetary Aggregates Explain More?

We investigate the predictive power of Divisia monetary aggregates in explaining exchange rate variations for India, Israel, Poland, UK and the US, in the years leading up to and following the 2007-08 recessions. One valid concern for the chosen sample period is that the interest rate has been stuck...

Taniya Ghosh, Soumya Bhadury
Feb 2018
 
Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy

Lucas (1990) argues that the neoclassical adjustment process fails to explain the relative paucity of FDI inflows from rich to poor countries. In this paper we consider a natural experiment: using China as the treated country and India as the control, we show that the dynamics of the relative FDI...

John Donaldson, Christos Koulovatianos, Jian Li, Rajnish Mehra
Jan 2018
Input Output Table for India: 2013-14

The input–output table for India has been constructed for the year 2013-14 consistent with the National Accounts estimates given in the National Accounts Statistics (NAS) 2015, while the supply use table (SUT) is for the year 2012-13. In order to allow for comparisons with the 2007-08 input-output...

Kanhaiya Singh, M R Saluja
Dec 2016
 
Inflation Targeting for India?: The Implications of Limited Asset Market Participation

This paper analyzes whether liquidity constraints matter for optimal monetary policy choices in an open economy. Asset market participation is limited as some agents lack financial capacity and behave in a hand-to-mouth fashion. I evaluate consumer welfare using a micro-founded welfare criterion...

Tara Iyer
Jul 2015
A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for India

Over the last decade, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework has become a workhorse for macroeconomic analysis in both academic and policy circles. Following this emerging trend, we aim to expand our research capacity in macroeconomics at NCAER by introducing a baseline DSGE...

Shesadri Banerjee, Parantap Basu
May 2015
 
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