NCAER organised a webinar to discuss the report on Global Economic Prospects, January 2022 with Dr Indermit Gill, Vice President, World Bank and Mr Ayhan Kose, Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group in the Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions Practice Group of the World Bank. Professor Manoj Pant, Director and Vice Chancellor, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, and Dr Poonam Gupta, Director General, NCAER, will be the discussants. The discussion was moderated by Ms Mythili Bhusnurmath, Senior Adviser, NCAER.
Global Economic Prospects (GEP) is a flagship report of the World Bank Group, which examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semi-annual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
The global economic recovery is set to decelerate amid diminished policy support, continued COVID-19 flare-ups, and lingering supply bottlenecks. The outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including new COVID-19 outbreaks, the possibility of de-anchored inflation expectations, and financial stress in a context of record-high debt levels. These challenges underscore the importance of national policy responses and strengthened global cooperation to promote a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery.
Growth in most Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) in 2022-23 is projected to revert to the average rates witnessed during the decade prior to the pandemic. This pace of growth will not be enough to recoup the output setbacks that occurred during the pandemic. All the emerging market regions will stand in contrast to the advanced economies, where the gap is projected to close.
The GEP January 2022 report features analytical sections that provide fresh insights into three emerging obstacles to a durable recovery in developing economies – Debt, Commodity prices, and Inequality.
Indermit Gill is Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions at the World Bank. Between 2016 and 2021, he was a Professor of Public Policy at Duke University and Non-resident Senior Fellow in the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution. Gill worked at the World Bank from 1993 to 2016, where his assignments included Director of Development Policy in Development Economics, Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia, Staff Director for the 2009 World Development Report on Economic Geography, Acting Chief Economist for East Asia and the Pacific, and Principal Country Economist for Brazil. He has a PhD and AM in Economics from the University of Chicago, an MA from the Delhi School of Economics, and a BA in Economics from St Stephen’s College, University of Delhi.
Ayhan Kose is Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group in the Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions Practice Group of the World Bank. Under his management, the Prospects Group produces the Bank’s corporate flagship report, Global Economic Prospects, in addition to other policy and analytical publications. Prior to joining the World Bank, he was Assistant to the Director of the Research Department and Deputy Chief of the Multilateral Surveillance Division in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Mr Kose is a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a Dean’s Fellow at the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business, and a Research Associate at the Center for Applied Macroeconomics. He has a PhD in Economics from the Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa and a BS in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University.
Mythili Bhusnurmath is Senior Adviser, NCAER, and Consulting Editor, ET Now TV. She holds a Master’s in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics and is a Certified Associate of the Indian Institute of Bankers. She also holds a law degree from Delhi University. She worked with the State Bank of India and Reserve Bank of India before moving to journalism in 1993. She was Opinion Page Editor, The Economic Times, and Editor, The Financial Express.
Manoj Pant is an Indian expert in International Trade. He is Director and Vice Chancellor, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT), since August 2017. Previously, he was a full-time Professor at the Centre for International Trade and Development, Jawaharlal Nehru University, where he taught international trade theory. Prior to that he taught Economics at Delhi University. He has also been a guest lecturer in the business schools of Indian Institute of Management, Lucknow, IIFT, Delhi, and University of Lucerne, Switzerland, and a visiting Fulbright scholar at Columbia University.
He obtained his undergraduate degree from St Stephen’s College, and his master’s degree from Delhi School of Economics, Delhi University. He earned his PhD at the Southern Methodist University, Dallas, Texas, USA.
Poonam Gupta is the Director General of NCAER and a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM). Before joining NCAER, she was Lead Economist, Global Macro and Market Research, International Finance Corporation (IFC); and Lead Economist for India at the World Bank. Her prior appointments include the Reserve Bank of India Chair Professor at National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP); Professor at Indian Council for Research on International Economics Relations (ICRIER); Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics; and, Economist at the International Monetary Fund. She holds a PhD in International Economics from the University of Maryland, USA, and a Masters in Economics from the Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi.