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Lead-Lag Relationship between Credit and Output Cycles: Case of India and US

To understand the interactions between real and financial aspects of an economy, this paper investigates cyclical relationship between credit and growth cycles in India and US over the period 1994-2013 in the frequency domain. Originality of our contribution is in the use of Multitaper method of...

Anusha Avyukt
Jul 2018
The NCAER State Investment Potential Index

NCAER-State Investment Potential Index or N-SIPI is an evidence-based index that combines published secondary data on key relevant parameters with an extensive industry survey conducted by NCAER across twenty states and the Union Territory of Delhi. The Index is designed to provide a systematic and...

Anushree Sinha, Saurabh Bandyopadhyay, Tarujyoti Buragohain, Prerna Prabhakar, Anupma Mehta, Astha Sen, Prachi Mittal, Siddharth Verma
Aug 2018
A New Approach to Nowcasting Indian Gross Value Added

In India, quarterly growth of Gross Value Added (GVA) is published with a large lag and nowcasts are exacerbated by data challenges typically faced by emerging market economies, such as big data revisions, mixed frequencies data publication, small sample size, non-synchronous nature of data...

Soumya Bhadury, Robert C. M. Beyer, Sanjib Pohit
Jun 2018
Study to Identify the Gap in Institutional Funding in Agro-Processing Cooperative Sector in India: Overview and Policy Implications

This NCAER study examines the issue of credit penetration, its impact on the performance of agro-processing cooperatives, and the role of the National Cooperative Development Cooperation (NCDC) in facilitating cooperative activities through its financial and logistical support. The bulk of the...

Saurabh Bandyopadhyay, Tarujyoti Buragohain, Sameer Kumar Mondal, Palash Baruah, Yogesh Tanwar
Apr 2018
Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Public and Private Investment in India

This paper contributes to the debate on the relationship between public and private investment in India along the following dimensions. First, acknowledging major structural changes that the Indian economy has undergone in the past three decades, we study whether public investment in recent years...

Girish Bahal, Mehdi Raissi, Volodymyr Tulin
May 2018
India Policy Forum 2016-17

This 13th India Policy Forum 2016–17 Volume comprises papers and highlights of the discussions at the India Policy Forum (IPF) held in New Delhi on July 12–13, 2016.

Shekhar Shah, Barry Bosworth, Karthik Muralidharan
Jul 2017
Money's Causal Role in Exchange Rate: Do Divisia Monetary Aggregates Explain More?

We investigate the predictive power of Divisia monetary aggregates in explaining exchange rate variations for India, Israel, Poland, UK and the US, in the years leading up to and following the 2007-08 recessions. One valid concern for the chosen sample period is that the interest rate has been stuck...

Taniya Ghosh, Soumya Bhadury
Feb 2018
Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy

Lucas (1990) argues that the neoclassical adjustment process fails to explain the relative paucity of FDI inflows from rich to poor countries. In this paper we consider a natural experiment: using China as the treated country and India as the control, we show that the dynamics of the relative FDI...

John Donaldson, Christos Koulovatianos, Jian Li, Rajnish Mehra
Jan 2018
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