The Taper This Time

On November 3, 2021, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would reduce the scale of its asset purchases by $15 billion a month starting immediately.  Do emerging markets, such as India, need to prepare for a replay of the taper tantrum of 2013? We show that emerging markets, including India, have strengthened their external economic and financial positions since 2013.  At the same time, fiscal deficits are much wider, and public debts are much heavier.  As U.S. interest rates now begin moving up, servicing existing debts and preventing the debt-to-GDP ratio from rising still further will become more challenging.   Either taxes have to be raised or public spending must be cut to generate additional revenues for debt servicing.

Barry Eichengreen,  Poonam Gupta,  Rishabh Choudhary
Nov 2021

Economic Policy, Macroeconomics