National Council of Applied Economic Research
According to the GDP estimates by economic historian Angus Maddison, 1st century CE onwards India had the largest share of global GDP for 1500 years and shared the top spot with China until 1870. Today, with India becoming the world’s fifth-largest economy, it is no longer unrealistic to pose the question whether China and India can again... Read More
Despite recent expansion in its population covered by public-funded insurance, a large section of India’s population remains at major financial risk from health shocks. This segment of population, sometimes referred to as the “missing middle,” typically consists of population groups that are, or have been, engaged in informal sector work, and are not poor enough... Read More
Globalization is not over, but it is being reconfigured by events. Internationally, there are economic and political tensions between the United States and China. Both countries have responded with import tariffs, export controls, and foreign investment restrictions that have led to a decline in the relative importance of bilateral trade and the collapse of bilateral... Read More
This paper examines whether IMF lending is associated with increases in outflows to offshore financial centers (OFCs), known for bank secrecy and asset protection, relative to other international destinations. Using quarterly data from the BIS on bilateral bank deposits, we are unable to detect any positive and statistically significant effect of IMF loan disbursements on... Read More
The Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for India was historically constructed based on Input-Output table (IO). But from 2011-12, Government of India, is publishing Supply-Use table, instead of input-output table. While erstwhile Input-Output Table published by Government of India had same number of products and industries, Supply-Use table provides one ‘Supply matrix’ and one ‘Use matrix’,... Read More
Firms and policy makers are increasingly looking at friend-shoring to make supply chains less vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. We test whether these considerations are shaping FDI flows, using investment-level data on over 300,000 instances of greenfield FDI between 2003 and 2022. Estimates from a gravity model, which controls for standard push and pull factors, show... Read More
This paper addresses one of the most critical yet overlooked problems of excessive absence of students in primary grades in India. Considering the intuitive link between students’ attendance and achievements, this paper empirically investigates the incidence and causes of chronic absenteeism while examining the variations in the attainment of foundational skills of primary students. Using... Read More
The COVID-19 pandemic, and the consequent nationwide lockdown in India that began on March 25, 2020, caused a major disruption in the labour market, leading to the widespread loss of livelihoods and food insecurity. The findings from a telephonic survey of a representative sample of more than 3,000 households in the National Capital Region (NCR)... Read More
The COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on the tourism industry across the world. Be it aviation or hospitality, transportation, tour operators or eateries, every activity related to tourism was adversely affected by the pandemic in an unprecedented manner. India saw the first severe impact during the first quarter of 2020-21 when the tourism industry... Read More
Do temporary labor supply programs cause physicians to move to and stay in undesirable areas? To what extent do these programs improve the health of the elderly and non-elderly population in those areas? I investigate these questions by studying state and local loan repayment programs for new eligible physicians which were rolled out over the... Read More
