Poonam Gupta

Poonam Gupta

Director General

Poonam Gupta is the Director General of National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), India’s largest economic policy think tank, and a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister.

Gupta is the founding Director of NCAER’s National Macro and Growth Centre, and editor of its two journals: Margin and Indian Policy Forum. She joined NCAER after spending nearly two decades at top multilateral institutions- IMF, World Bank and IFC. Earlier, as part of the academia, Gupta taught at the prestigious Delhi School of Economics, University of Maryland (USA) and as a visiting faculty at ISI, Delhi. She has also been the RBI Chair Professor at NIPFP and a Professor at ICRIER.

She is currently on the Boards of NIPFP and GDN (Global Development Network) and a member of the World Bank’s Advisory Group for ‘Poverty & Equity Global Practice’ besides being on the Development Advisory Committee of NITI Aayog. Gupta was the Chair of a Think20 Task Force on ‘Macroeconomics, Trade, and Livelihoods’ during India’s G20 Presidency and is also on the FICCI Executive Committee.

As a leading scholar on the Indian economy and emerging markets, her focus areas have been issues related to the international financial architecture; economic growth; monetary and fiscal policy frameworks; structural reforms; and state-level growth dynamics among others. Her research papers have been published in scholarly journals, books, conference volumes and as working papers of the IMF and World Bank. Gupta has nearly fifty widely cited research papers and an edited book on India and China (with Barry Eichengreen) to her credit. She won the 1998 EXIM Bank award for her PhD on international economics. She has been writing regular columns on national and international issues in leading Indian dailies like The Business Standard and The Economic Times.

Gupta holds a Master’s degree and PhD in Economics from University of Maryland, USA, and a Master’s degree in Economics from Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi.

PAPER | NCAER
India’s Debt Dilemma
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta and Ayesha Ahmed
2023

PAPER | NCAER
Priorities for the G20 Finance Track
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta
2023

PAPER | NCAER
Privatization of Public Sector Banks in India: Why, How and How Far
Poonam Gupta,  Arvind Panagariya
2022

PAPER | NCAER
A Central Bank Digital Currency for India?
Barry Eichengreen,  Poonam Gupta,  Tim Marple
2022

PAPER | NCAER
Slowdown of the Indian Economy during 2019-20: An Enigma or an Anomaly
Poonam Gupta,  Abhinav
2022

PAPER | NCAER
The Taper This Time
Poonam Gupta
2021

JOURNAL | Indian Public Policy Review
Emerging Market Sell-Offs: India and the World
Poonam Gupta | Dhruv Jain
2021

REPORT | World Bank
India Development Update
Poonam Gupta
2020

PAPER | India Policy Forum, NCAER
India’s Growth Outlook, Fiscal and Monetary Policy Framework Inflation Targeting in India: An Interim Assessment
Poonam Gupta
2020

PAPER | India Policy Forum, NCAER
India’s Growth Story
Poonam Gupta
2018

PAPER | World Bank
Capital flow measures: structural or cyclical policy tools?
Poonam Gupta
2018

PAPER | World Bank
Managing Sudden Stops of Capital Flows
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
2016

BOOK CHAPTER | Springer
Monetary Policy in an Interdependent World-The Indian Experience in Monetary Policy in India: A Modern Macroeconomic Perspective
Poonam Gupta | Chetan Ghate | Ken Kletzer
2015

JOURNAL | Indian Growth and Development Review
Bank Ownership and the Effects of Financial Liberalization: Evidence from India
Poonam Gupta | Kalpana Kochhar | Sanjaya Panth
2015

JOURNAL | Emerging Markets Review
Tapering Talk: The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on Emerging Markets
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
2015

JOURNAL | Journal of International Money and Finance
What Makes a Currency Procyclical?
Poonam Gupta | Tito Cordella
2015

PAPER | India Policy Forum, NCAER
Quantitative Easing and Tapering of Monetary Policy in the US: Understanding the Effects on India
Poonam Gupta
2015

PAPER | World Bank
The Exchange Rate and Exports Growth: Are Services Different?
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
2015

PAPER | World Bank
From Tapering to Tightening—the Impact of the US Lift-off on East Asian Countries
Poonam Gupta
2015

PAPER | World Bank
Tapering Talk: The Impact on African Economies
Poonam Gupta
2014

PAPER | World Bank
Generating Larger Tax Revenues in South Asia
Poonam Gupta
2014

JOURNAL | Journal of International Money and Finance
Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on Indian Banks: Survival of the Fittest?
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
2013

JOURNAL | Indian Growth and Development Review
Exports of Services: Indian Experience in Perspective
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
2013

REPORT Economic Survey
Labor Regulations: Impediment to Growth and Size of Indian Firms in Manufacturing
Poonam Gupta | Rana Hasan
2013

WORKING PAPER | NBER & Oxford Economic Papers
The Two Waves of Services Sector Growth
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
2013

JOURNAL | Economics and Politics
Growth and Election Outcomes in a Developing Country
Poonam Gupta | Arvind Panagariya
2012

BOOK CHAPTER | Oxford University Press
Explaining the Growth of Manufacturing in India: Role of Labor Regulations and Infrastructure in Handbook on Indian Economy
Poonam Gupta | Utsav Kumar
2011

BOOK CHAPTER | Oxford University Press
Economic Reforms and Economic Outcomes in India: Trade, Poverty, Inequality, and Democracy
Poonam Gupta | Arvind Panagariya
2011

WORKING PAPER | NBER & India Policy Forum, NCAER
The Service Sector: India’s Road to Economic Growth?
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
2011

PAPER | Government of India and ICRIER
Financial Sector Reforms under G20 and the Indian Banks
Poonam Gupta
2011

PAPER | World Bank
Services Exports: Are the Drivers Different for Developing Countries?
Poonam Gupta
2011 

REPORT | World Bank
India Development Update
Poonam Gupta
2010

BOOK | Oxford University Press
Emerging Giants: China and India in the World Economy
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen | Rajiv Kumar
2010

PAPER | Government of India and ICRIER
Reforms of the State Owned Enterprises in China and Lessons for India
Poonam Gupta
2010

PAPER | India Policy Forum, NCAER
Big Reforms but Small Payoffs: Explaining the Weak Record of Growth and Employment in Indian Manufacturing
Poonam Gupta | Rana Hasan | Utsav Kumar
2009

BOOK CHAPTER| Oxford University Press
What Constrains Indian Manufacturing? in Emerging Giants: China and India in the World Economy
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen | Rajiv Kumar
2009

JOURNAL | Journal of Finance
Foreign Banks in Poor Countries: Theory and Evidence
Poonam Gupta
2008

JOURNAL | Journal of International Economics
Behavior of Output during Currency Crises
Poonam Gupta | Deepak Mishra | Ratna Sahay
2007

BOOK CHAPTER| University of Chicago Press
Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs in Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen | Ashoka Mody
2006

JOURNAL | Journal of Financial Stability
Foreign Banks in Emerging Market Crises: Evidence from Malaysia
Poonam Gupta | Enrica Detragiache
2006

JOURNAL | Journal of International Money and Finance
Inside the Crisis: An Empirical Analysis of Banking Systems in Distress
Poonam Gupta | Enrica Detragiache | Asli Demirguc-Kunt
2006 

JOURNAL | Journal of International Money and Finance
Aftermath of Banking Crises: Effects on Real and Monetary Variables
Poonam Gupta
2005

WORKING PAPER | IMF
Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittances: Evidence from India
Poonam Gupta
2005

PAPER | IMF
Understanding the Growth Momentum in Indian Services
Poonam Gupta | Patricia Reynolds
2005

WORKING PAPER | IMF
Finance in Lower Income Countries: An Empirical Exploration
Poonam Gupta | Enrica Detragiache | Thierry Tressel
2005

BOOK CHAPTER| Oxford University Press
Services Revolution in India in India’s and China’s Recent Experience with Reform and Growth
Poonam Gupta | James Gordon
2004

JOURNAL | Economic and Political Weekly
NRI Deposits in India: Trends and Determinants
Poonam Gupta | James Gordon
2004

WORKING PAPER | IMF
Portfolio Flows into India: Do Domestic Fundamentals Matter?
Poonam Gupta | James Gordon
2003

PAPER | IMF
Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?
Poonam Gupta | Ilan Goldfajn
2003

PAPER | IMF
States’ finances in India
Poonam Gupta | Patricia Reynolds
2001

OPINION | The Economic Times
Odisha’s Breakout Moment is here!
Poonam Gupta
April 11, 2024

OPINION | The Economic Times
What can Bihar, with per-capita income 30% of national average, do to shed its low-income status?
Poonam Gupta
March 11, 2024

OPINION | The Economic Times
How Can Gujarat Defy the Middle-Income Trap?
Poonam Gupta
February 08, 2024

OPINION | The Economic Times
Making GDP Estimates More Agile
Poonam Gupta
January 04, 2024

OPINION | Business Standard
Evaluating the Indian economy’s resilience
Poonam Gupta
December 29, 2023

OPINION | Business Standard
India needs a gender strategy
Poonam Gupta
October 19, 2023

OPINION | Business Standard
India’s growth rate and the sanctity of GDP deflator
Poonam Gupta and S Priyadarshini
September 20, 2023

OPINION | The Economic Times
The Future of Inflation Management in India
Poonam Gupta
September 4, 2023

OPINION | Business Standard
The World Bank must reform
Poonam Gupta
August 22, 2023

OPINION | Business Standard
Incentivising fiscal prudence for states
Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta
July 31, 2023

OPINION | The Economic Times
India’s debt dilemma
Poonam Gupta and Barry Eichengreen 
July 28, 2023

OPINION | Ideas for India
India’s debt dilemma
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta and Ayesha Ahmed
July 17, 2023

OPINION | The Economic Times
Time for a great reset of global finance for developing countries
Poonam Gupta
June 20, 2023

OPINION | Business Standard
Reforming the rating agencies
Poonam Gupta
April 14, 2023

OPINION | The Economic Times
Has the RBI Pivoted?
Poonam Gupta
April 10, 2023

OPINION | The Economic Times
The debt problem of LICs: Plenty of blame to go around
Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta
March 6, 2023

OPINION | The Economic Times
Union Budget Supports Domestic Consumption as the Main Driver of Growth
Poonam Gupta
February 2, 2023

OPINION | Business Standard
A Realistic Survey of the Indian Economy 
Poonam Gupta
February 1, 2023

OPINION | The Economic Times
Now is the time for policymaking aimed at insulating the Indian economy from global shocks
Poonam Gupta and Ayesha Ahmed
January 1, 2023

OPINION | The Times of India
Slow and steady is how India’s digital currency will win
Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta
December 25, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
Why extending a swap line to India should be in the interest of Fed as well as RB
Poonam Gupta
December 16, 2022

OPINION | Project Syndicate
A Financial Agenda for India’s G20 Presidency
Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta
December 12, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
Freeing the white elephants: Why privatisation of public banks can only be good
Poonam Gupta and Arvind Panagariya
October 7, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
How inflation targeting framework has worked well for India
Poonam Gupta
September 19, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
IMF’s latest news may not be bad news for India if it plays its cards right
Poonam Gupta
July 28, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
Why the exchange rate ought to be treated as an automatic stabilizer
Poonam Gupta
July 14, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
The reforms needed for G20 to be relevant to all members, and not just advanced economies
Poonam Gupta & Kavya Singh
June 13, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
Rapid introduction of a central bank digital currency is fraught with risks, especially for end-users
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta & Tim Marple
May 5, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
How RBI’s status quo on key policy rates is appropriate for India
Poonam Gupta
February 14, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
Budget steers clear of drama in complex economic environment
Poonam Gupta
February 2, 2022

OPINION | The Economic Times
Where will India’s economic growth settle in the next 2-3 years?
Poonam Gupta
December 16, 2021

OPINION | The Economic Times
As the US Fed tightens the asset purchases spigot once more, will India feel the heat?
Poonam Gupta and Barry Eichengreen
November 12, 2021

OPINION | The Economic Times
Could inflation in developed countries have a spillover effect on India?
Poonam Gupta
October 12, 2021

OPINION | The Economic Times
Why Despite Being Impacted by Tapering, India Doesn’t Need to Overly Worry about the Fed Decision
Poonam Gupta
September 24, 2021

OPINION | The Economic Times
Volatility and Structure Reforms: Opportunity Comes Knocking
Poonam Gupta
2018

OPINION | Let’s Talk Development
Capital Account Liberalization and Controls: Structural or Cyclical Policy Tools?
Poonam Gupta
May 17, 2018

OPINION | End Poverty in South Asia
India’s Remarkably Robust and Resilient Growth Story
Poonam Gupta
April 12, 2018

OPINION | The Economic Times
India’s Growth Story
Poonam Gupta
October 3, 2018

OPINION | Let’s Talk Development
Should Emerging Markets Worry about U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements?
Poonam Gupta
June 2017

OPINION | Let’s Talk Development
Are Capital Flows Fickle? And Does the Answer Still Depend on Type?
Poonam Gupta
February 2017

OPINION | Vox Column
Managing Sudden Stops
Poonam Gupta
May 13, 2016

OPINION | Let’s Talk Development
Handling Volatile Capital Flows—The Indian Experience
Poonam Gupta
March 9, 2016

OPINION | Vox publication
The Brexit Surprise and Emerging Markets
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
July 4, 2016

OPINION | People Move
Remittances to India—Resilient to Domestic and External Shocks
Poonam Gupta
June 15, 2015

OPINION | Let’s Talk Development
Currency Cyclicality: Emerging Markets Rhetoric and the Euro Crisis
Poonam Gupta
December 18, 2014

OPINION | Let’s Talk Development
India: From BRICS to Fragile ‘n’ (and Back!)
Poonam Gupta
February 10, 2014

OPINION | Voxeu
Tapering talk: The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on Emerging Markets
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
December 19, 2013

OPINION | Let’s Talk Development
Tapering talk: The Impact of Expectations of Reduced Federal Reserve Security Purchases on Emerging Markets
Poonam Gupta
December 12, 2013

OPINION | People Move
Remittances to the Rescue!
Poonam Gupta
September 30, 2013

OPINION | The Financial Express
Economic Survey: New Wine in an Old Bottle?
Poonam Gupta
February 2013

OPINION | Voxeu
The Real Exchange Rate and Exports Growth-Are Services Different?
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
January 18, 2013

OPINION | The Financial Express
What Makes Criminals Tick in Politics
Poonam Gupta | Bhaskar Dutta
January 2013

OPINION | The Financial Express
The Global Financial Crisis and Indian Banks: Survival of the Fittest?
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
June 2013

OPINION | The Financial Express
The Real Exchange Rate and Exports Growth-Are Services Different
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
January 2013

OPINION | India Policy Portal
How Do Indian Voters Respond to Candidates with Criminal Charges: Evidence from the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections
Poonam Gupta | Bhaskar Dutta
2012

OPINION | The Economic Times
Crime Tainted MPs Have Little to do with High-Level Corruption
Poonam Gupta | Arvind Panagariya
September 2011

OPINION | The Financial Express
For Performers Incumbency Helps
Poonam Gupta | Arvind Panagariya
April 19, 2011

OPINION | The Times of India
Rich, Educated, Criminal?
Poonam Gupta | Arvind Panagariya
April 5, 2011

OPINION | The Economic Times
Count on Services for Jobs
Poonam Gupta | Barry Eichengreen
June 15, 2010

OPINION | IMF Research Bulletin
Growth, Policies, Institutions, and Poverty
Poonam Gupta
December 4, 2004

Education

  • Ph.D. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, 1998
  • Specialization: Macroeconomics, International Finance, and International Trade
  • M.A. Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, 1995
  • M.A. Economics, Delhi School of Economics, 1991
  • B.A. Economics, Hindu College, Delhi University, 1989

Work Experience

  • 2021 – Present: Director General, NCAER
  • October 2021 – Present: Member, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister
  • 2020 – 2021: Lead Economist, Global Macro and Market Research, International Finance Corporation (IFC), World Bank Group
  • 2017 – 2020: Lead Economist, India, World Bank
  • 2013 – 2017: Senior Economist, Office of the Senior Vice President & Chief Economist, World Bank
  • 2011 – 2013: Reserve Bank of India Chair Professor & National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP)
  • 2009 – 2011: Professor, Indian Council for Research on International Economics Relations (ICRIER)
  • 2006 – 2008: Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics
  • 2003: Visiting Professor, Indian Statistical Institute (ISI)
  • 1998 – 2006: Economist, International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Department, Research Department, and Asia and Pacific Department
  • 1993 – 1998: Lecturer, Graduate Teaching Assistant, University of Maryland
  • 1991 – 1993: Lecturer, Hansraj College and Hindu College, Delhi University