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Macroeconomic Modelling of Emerging Scenarios for India's Twelfth Five Year Plan

The objective of this project is to analyze three alternative growth scenarios for the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012–13 to 2016–17). These three scenarios present the expected GDP growth rates of the Indian economy under various policy actions and institutional and regulatory frameworks. The updated macro econometric model developed at NCAER was used to provide emerging scenarios. The results indicate that GDP growth rate is expected to be around 8 per cent for the Twelfth Five Year Plan period under the "flotilla" scenario, 5–6 per cent under the "muddling along" scenario and below 5 per cent under the "falling apart" scenario. The study also found that poverty reduction is expected to be high under the first scenario and would be low under the other two scenarios.

NCAER Project Team:
Purna Chandra Parida, Shashanka Bhide

Sponsored by:
Indian Planning Commission