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State of the Economy Seminar April 2016
February 4, 2016

Conference Room, NCAER





 NCAER's Quarterly Review of the Economy

Quarter 3, 2015–16


The NCAER QRE team presented its quarterly review & forecast of the major macroeconomic variables based on NCAER’s modelling work. It included NCAER's observations, reviews and projections for 2016-17 covering various sectors including agriculture; industry and services; public finance, money; credit and finance; external sector as well as the GDP forecasts. On this occasion NCAER released its widely-reported Quarterly Review of the Economy or QRE as it is popularly known.
Key Highlights
NCAER’s annual model predicts that GDP growth rate (GDP market prices at 2011–12 prices) will grow at 7.4 per cent for 2015–16 and 2016–17
NCAER’s annual model for GDP Market prices at 2011–12 prices forecasts GDP growth rate for 2016–17 at 7.4 per cent.  The quarterly model suggests that Gross Value Added at Basic Prices (2011–12) will grow at 7.2 per cent for 2015–16 and 2016–17. 
The prospects for agricultural sector in 2015–16 remain weak owing to poor monsoon rainfall for the second year in a row. Agricultural growth during the first half of the current financial year reduced to 2.0 per cent from 2.4 per cent growth witnessed in the first half of 2014–15.  NCAER estimates, however suggest that Rabi output may perform comparable to previous year and the overall food grain output for this year may be marginally higher, approximately 1 per cent to 2 per cent.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted sharply in November 2015, with the index declining 3.2%, down from a five-year high of 9.8% in October 2015 and a growth of 3.8% in the comparable period last year. Manufacturing sector, accounting for 75 per cent of the total industry, became the biggest contributor to the fall in industrial growth with the manufacturing IIP witnessing a steep fall of (&